Mathematical Modeling and Epidemic Prediction of Covid-19 and Its Significance to Epidemic Prevention and Control Measures

Background: Since receiving unexplained pneumonia patients at the Jinyintan Hospital in Wuhan, China December 2019, new coronavirus (COVID-19) has rapidly spread and to entire some neighboring countries. We establish dynamics model of infectious diseases time series predict trend short-term prediction transmission COVID-19, which will be conducive intervention prevention COVID-19 by departments all levels mainland buy more for clinical trials. Methods: Based on mechanism population implemented control measures, we dynamic models six chambers, based different mathematical formulas according variation law original data. Findings: The results analysis kinetic show that cumulative diagnosis can reach 36,343 after one week (February 8, 2020), number basic regenerations 4.01. confirmed diagnoses a peak 87,701 March 15, 2020; Wuhan 4.3, cases 76,982 20. Whether Mainland or both infection rate regeneration continue decline, sensitivity it takes suspected diagnosed as have significant impact size duration diagnoses. Increased mortality leads additional pneumonia, while increased cure rates are not sensitive cases. Interpretation: Chinese governments various intervened many ways epidemic. According analysis, believe emergency measures adopted early stage epidemic, such blocking restricting flow people Hubei province, increasing support had crucial restraining effect It is very effective treatment method increase investment medical resources ensure treated timely manner. enhanced bodies deceased ensuring themselves process do result viral infections, once with cured, antibodies left their may prevent them from reinfection longer period time.